SUGARCANE TO SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL (SAF)
Dr Marilyn Govender
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a low-carbon fuel alternative for the aviation industry, in comparison to conventional jet fuel. SAF is not produced from petroleum-based fuels but rather from biobased feedstocks such as sugarcane, maize, oilseeds, non-food crops, wastes, residues, algae biomass, CO-rich industrial waste gases.
Technologies approved to date when producing SAF are for “drop in fuels”, meaning that they can be used in the same infrastructure as conventional jet fuel, without any changes. SAF is chemically similar to conventional jet fuel but can reduce the CO2 emissions for aviation transport.
GLOBAL REGULATORY SUPPORT
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is a United Nations agency, established to help countries share aviation space mutual benefit. ICAO assists the 193 Contracting States to the Chicago Convention as they develop and adopt standards, practices, and policies for international civilian flight. The 41st International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Assembly, member States resolved to work together to strive to achieve a collective global long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) for international aviation of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the trade association for the world’s airlines representing about 290 airlines or 83% of total air traffic, approved the resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Based on the projected growth of air travel demand, this means that a cumulative total of 21.2 gigatonnes of carbon will need to be abated between now and 2050. SAF is expected to contribute to 65% reduction in emissions for international aviation towards the 2050 net zero carbon emissions target.
WHY ARE INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES AND AIRPORTS SUPPORTING SAF?
In addition to the net zero emission target by 2050, the following benefits are seen to be encouraging international airlines and airports to support SAF:
• Cleaner alternative to fossil fuel, achieving up to an 80% reduction in GHG emissions over the fuel's life cycle analysis
• Drop-in solution that allows airlines to reduce emissions with no/minimal investments
• Positioned as forerunners and environmentally friendly in the industry
• Trust, loyalty and requirements met from investors, customers and regulators
• Support climate mitigation by lowering their value chain emissions
• Help aviation industry meet their sustainability goals and GHG reduction targets
HOW IS SAF PRODUCED?
Several production pathways and feedstocks can be used to produce SAF. There are nine production pathways for SAF that have been internationally certified/approved under the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) under ASTM D7566 standard and ASTM D1655 standard.
For sugarcane as the main input feedstock, the AtJ technology pathway provided through Lanzatech, Axens, Honeywell UOP would be the likely technology route.
A simplified processing route for sugarcane to jet fuel is illustrated below:
WHERE IS IT CURRENTLY PRODUCED AND USED?
According to IATA, in 2022, SAF production was estimated at approximately 300 million litres (less than 1% of global jet-fuel consumption). IATA’s expectation for overall renewable fuel production is to reach an estimated capacity of at least 69 billion litres by 2028. If renewable energy production reaches 69 billion litres by 2028 as estimated, the trajectory to 100 billion liters by 2030 would be on track. If just 30% of that produced SAF, the industry could achieve 30 billion liters of SAF production by 2030.
Worldwide and more dominated in the EU, US and Asia major airports supply and use SAF. Demand in these continents is expected to grow as a result of local projects and planned projects, blending mandates, carbon credits benefits and offtake agreements.
The Board of Airline Representatives South Africa (BARSA) has stated that over 450 000 flights have now taken off using a mix of SAF and conventional fuels, and more than 50 airlines around the world now have at least some experience in SAF.
SAF markets are expected to grow, and the envisaged capex investment are clear signals of the envisaged growth by 2050:
EU and UK: ~150 SAF refineries with ~250 billion Eur capex investment
US: ~250 SAF refineries with ~ 400 billion USD capex investment
THE COST OF SAF
The SAF premium over conventional fossil fuels is not expected to decline in the foreseeable future, which means that airlines would a require significant financial incentives in order to switch over. Travellers could incur a cost of 3 – 14 USD per ticket in 2030 and 13 – 38 USD per ticket in 2050 (ICAO LTAG).
According to the WWF (2022) Blueprint for the production of SAF in SA - depending on the feedstock, pathway and technology route, cost of SAF could range from R28/l to R66/l. While all SAF is more expensive than conventional jet-fuel, some pathways are already competitive with the current international SAF cost and several more could become competitive if the cost of capital for the processing facilities and/or the feedstock cost could be lowered through policy support or concessional funding.
IS THERE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SAF IN SOUTH AFRICA
• An estimated 400 000 tons of export sugar could produce 228 800 ethanol m3/a, from which 114 000 m3/a of SAF could be produced
• Opportunities and challenges that need to be addressed:
A SAF industry scoping/pre-feasibility study jointly funded with the IDC, is currently underway. The planned completion for the SAF industry scoping/prefeasibility study is November 2023. Should SAF prove to financially feasible, SAFDA is keen to engage and partner with relevant players in SAF production, jet fuel supply, technology, and aviation industry (airlines and airports), to bring onboard SA SAF to be part of the future SAF global market and contribute to net zero emission target by 2050.